AgeTech

The cell phone – imagine a connected life without it. The story of that invention, particularly the context of an AT&T monopoly of the time period, is instructive about what it takes to get an innovation into the market – when many are involved, including government agencies; and obstacles, in-house and competitors, are all around.  According to interviews and his many anecdotes in his book, Cutting the Cord, Marty Cooper, aged 94, it was just one thing after the other to get the cellphone fully designed, manufactured, and into the marketplace as a mobile phone – when even his own company, Motorola, thought that the car phone market was the real opportunity.  Motorola’s own estimates of the cell phone market opportunity in the 1970’s was a wild underestimation, predicting that millions of devices sold.  Today the total number is closer to 18 billion phones worldwide. Many of those users in other countries own no other device.

The past few weeks have brought broad-based wails of AI anxiety.  Last week in a meeting with some senior execs, there it was again – warning about scams, exploitation and worse. Then there is the AI laundry list of anxieties that keeps the media busy.  Note the hearings in Congress that raise questions and obtain carefully worded answers meant to allay widely shared fears. A regulatory framework has emerged (2 years ago) in Europe, with the purpose of helping Europe become a hub for AI innovation. The US government is interested in regulation, more for prevention, it seems, than to spawn innovation. But will it work? See social media.